Leaders unite to address the impacts of El Niño in Eastern and Southern Africa

Windhoek, Namibia, October 28, 2024 - Regional cooperation and early action are key to addressing the challenges posed by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and other climate-related shocks on the African continent. The call to action was made this Thursday as high-level representatives from governments and partners convened for a critical roundtable at the 9th Africa Regional Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) in Namibia. The event, titled "Strategic Policy Directions on El Niño: Transformative Disaster Risk Reduction in Eastern and Southern Africa", highlighted the devastating consequences of ENSO events on the region and the compounding impact of climate change.

The high-level event, organized by the UN Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR) in coordination with the Resilience Hub for Africa of the UN Development Programme (UNDP), and in partnership with the African Union and the Southern African Development Community (SADC) brought together ministers, heads of delegations, representatives of regional bodies, development and humanitarian partners to share best practices and identify collaborative ways forward in addressing ENSO.

Kamal Kishore, Special Representative of the United Nations Secretary-General for Disaster Risk Reduction, UNDRR, underscored the need for investing in inclusive early warning systems to mitigate the worst impacts of climate disasters. He highlighted the importance of forecasting the impacts of ENSO across multiple sectors, using simple language so all stakeholders can understand and act on the messages. He noted that "when we do these climate outlook forums, where the early warning forecasts are delivered, we need to also bring in key sectors, look at what happened in previous events across sectors and have a better economy-wide anticipation of what is likely to happen."

Since 2000, climate-related disasters have caused an estimated $540 billion in loss and damage in the region, and such events are becoming more intense and frequent because of climate change.

Anderson Banda, Director of the SADC Humanitarian and Emergency Operations Centre (SHOC) provided an overview of the El Niño-induced drought that affected part of Southern and Eastern Africa, noting that some SADC member states experienced long dry spells, storms and cyclones. He emphasized the importance of discussing the coming season because of the forecast received. "What we know will happen is that we will have a problematic period from October to March. We will be dealing with a situation where vulnerable communities have not been able to recover. So we are looking at it from a resilience and capacity point of view because it has been one hydrological extreme event after the other."

The impacts of the 2023/2024 El Niño episode have been significant, with over 61 million people affected by the drought in Southern Africa and an additional 5 million people affected by flooding in Eastern Africa. This most recent ENSO episode was one of the five strongest in recent history, making Africa one of the most affected regions globally.

Ko Barrett, Deputy Secretary-General, World Meteorological Organization (WMO), highlighted the importance of understanding ENSO's role in climate variability. "Changes to rainfall and temperature from ENSO are predictable but climate change may change the variability and frequency". She added that the region continues to advance in the ability to provide timely forecasting to allow for advance notice in the mobilization of anticipatory resources to address ENSO. "Understanding what is coming allows us to prepare, and it is a critical step in the Disaster Risk Reduction value chain".

As the impacts of El Niño persist, there is now a 60% likelihood of a transition to La Niña in the coming months. This cooling phase of ENSO could lead to drought conditions in Eastern Africa and heightened flood risks in Southern Africa, driving humanitarian partners to advocate for increased preparedness efforts.

Reena Ghelani, UN Climate Crisis Coordinator for El Niño/La Niña highlighted the gravity of the current ENSO impacts across the region, noting that nearly 30 million people in Southern Africa face crisis levels of food insecurity. "The frequency and intensity of these climate-related events are increasing, and we cannot continue to respond in the same way. We must prioritize long-term, transformative solutions to break the cycle of recurring crises," she said.

The roundtable discussions focused on the need for holistic solutions to address the root causes of vulnerability in the region. Moderated by Dr. Zeynu Ummer, Director of the UNDP Resilience Hub for Africa, the dialogue centered on disaster risk reduction strategies implemented by governments. Ministers in charge of DRR and high level representatives from East and Southern African countries stressed the need for stronger national and regional cooperation, improved early warning systems, and greater investment in building climate resilience at the community level.

High-level representatives highlighted the critical challenges posed by ENSO, shared strategic policy directions by respective member states, and reinforced commitments tolong-term DRR initiatives. Recognizing the gravity of the issue, member states emphasized the need to strengthen institutional capacity, foster multi-sectoral partnerships and co-create community-led solutions to build resilience against future ENSO-related shocks.